Methods: Using the health system dynamics framework, this analysis compares France from 1995 to 2003 (the relevant period of buprenorphine reform) to the US from 2018 until today (the comparison period to explore potential impacts of reform). We used it to guide examination of a) contextual issues relating to opioid use epidemiology and b) health system factors including prescriber supply, sector organization, and insurance coverage for primary care to draw relevant policy learning for the contemporary US.

Results: We identified that the US had a 22.5-fold higher mortality rate and a 2.3-fold higher opioid use disorder (OUD) rate compared to France, despite having rates of prescribed buprenorphine per-capita higher than, and per-person with OUD comparable to, than that of France. These wide gulfs between the scales and nature of the problems between France and the US suggest that relaxing restrictions on buprenorphine prescribing through abolishing the X waiver will be insufficient for achieving hoped-for reductions in overdose mortality.

Conclusion: Health system strengthening with a focus on improvements in primary care prescriber supply, coverage, and coordination are likely higher yield policy complements to relaxing buprenorphine regulation. Such an approach would better prepare the US to adapt to ongoing dynamics and uncertainties in the opioid crisis and to optimize the already relatively high levels of buprenorphine prescribing.